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PATRIS

EDPR - Key Takeaways from 3Q18 Trading Update

16 Oct 2018

EDP Renováveis disclosed 3Q18 operating data: EDP Renováveis published today after market close its 3Q18 operating data. EDPR’s 3Q18 results will be published on 7 November, before market opens. Electricity output fell by 1% y/y in 3Q18: EDPR produced 5.2TWh of energy in...

Patris Daily - 16 October 2018

16 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: STOXX600 finished the day little changed (+0.10%). 9 out of the 19 main sectors posted losses. Industrials (-0.76%) were amongst the laggards. Eurozone sovereign debt market: 10-year BTPs fell by 3.2bps to 3.542%. 10-year Bunds were little changed at 0.501%. PSPP net...

Outlook 4Q18 - Equities

15 Oct 2018

Equities (slide 31) 3Q18: developed markets continued to outperform emerging markets (slide 32) US: Buyback yield has declined despite a record amount spent in buybacks, while interest rates continue to increase… 1Q18 repatriation flows by US corporations of cash parked abroad were impressive; Higher amount available...

Outlook 4Q18 - Fixed Income

15 Oct 2018

Fixed Income (slide 15) 3Q18: terminal rates repriced higher in both the US and in the Euro Area. Huge increase in Italy-Germany 10-year spread - Systematic importance of Italy US Treasuries (slide 16) Is the FOMC underestimating how high rates will need to rise? Is the yield...

Outlook 4Q18 - Macro

15 Oct 2018

Macro (slide 3)  US: a persistent upswing in capital expenditures could mean that the business cycle has more room to run, despite its advanced age Tariffs have increased the cost of some durable goods. Higher fuel prices are a headwind to consumption; Government...

Patris Daily - 15 October 2018

15 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: With the exception of Portugal, all other major European stock indices closed negative. Spain (-1.18%, dropping to the lowest closing level in a year) and Italy (-0.52%) underperformed, while Portugal (+0.25%) was the sole winner of...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 15 October 2018

15 Oct 2018

Key themes for the coming week: 1.Moody’s upgrades Portugal from Ba1/Positive to Baa3/Stable. DBRS confirmed Portugal at BBB/Stable. 2.In Germany, CSU suffered their worst election result since 1950 on the regional elections in Bavaria that took place on Sunday. CSU has lost its...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 15 October 2018

15 Oct 2018

S&P500 Sharp decline over the last week. As we type, S&P500 is close to its 200-day moving average (2768). Daily momentum indicators show a strong oversold, which have already allowed S&P500 to try to stabilise around its 200-day moving average. We...

Patris Daily - 12 October 2018 - Part 2

12 Oct 2018

OUR TAKE ON THE LATEST MACRO DATA: Portugal: August International Trade Statistics Exports and imports of goods recorded nominal growth rates of +2.6%y/y and +8.6%y/y respectively, both decelerating when compared with the previous month (+13.8%y/y and 11.9%y/y in the same order, in...

Patris Daily - 12 October 2018 - Part 1

12 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: For the second day in a row, all major European stock indices closed negative yesterday. UK (-1.94%), France (-1.92%) and Germany (-1.48%) underperformed, while Portugal (-0.82%) was hit the least. STOXX 600 followed and also closed negative (-1.98%, reaching its...

PATRIS Fixed Income Weekly - 12 October 2018

12 Oct 2018

WEEKLY COMMENTARY 1.US Core consumer prices showed in September a modest rise for the second month in a row. The 0.1%m/m rise recorded last month brought the three-month annualised rate of change to 1.8% in September, from 2.0% in August, suggesting...

Patris Daily - 11 October 2018

11 Oct 2018

Europe: All major European stock indices closed negative yesterday. Portugal (-2.19%), France (-2.11%) and Germany (-2.21%) underperformed, while Spain (-1.05%) was hit the less. STOXX 600 fell by -1.61%, with 17 out of 19 sectors closing negative. Telecoms (+1.92%) and...

Patris Daily - 10 October 2018

10 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: All major European stock indices closed positive yesterday. Italy outperformed (+1.06%) and closed with gains for only the 2nd time in the last 10 sessions. STOXX600 also closed positive (for the 1st time in 4 sessions)...

Patris Daily - 9 October 2018

9 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: All the major European stock indices closed negative yesterday. Italy (-2.43%, reaching its lowest level since April 2017) underperformed, on the back of comments from Deputy Prime Minister Salvini and Deputy Premier Di Maio that the...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 8 October 2018

8 Oct 2018

Key highlights for the coming week: UK Cabinet will convene on Thursday and Friday to discuss BREXIT proposals. UK’s BREXIT white paper on the future relationship with EU is due for publication on the 9th of July; We will have a holiday-shortened...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 8 October 2018

8 Oct 2018

S&P500: S&P500 showed some signs of weakness over the last week. The index remains well above its January’s highs (2873). Short-term momentum indicator are weakening very fast. We see risks of further declines over the coming days/weeks. The index is likely to...

Patris Daily - 8 October 2018

8 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: Stock indexes traded with a negative tone across the region, reflecting the second consecutive session of losses in the US. STOXX600 fell by 0.86% (-1.77% over the week). 18 out of its 19 main industry groups finished the...

Patris Daily - 5 October 2018

8 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: All major European stock indices closed negative. France (-1.47%) and UK (-1.22%) underperformed, while Germany (-0.35%) was the least affected by the negative tone. STOXX 600 lost 1.08%, reaching its lowest level since 19 September, with only 3 out of...

Patris Daily - 4 October 2018

4 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: All major European stock indices closed positive. Italy outperformed (+0.84%) and gained for the first time in 6 sessions. STOXX 600 rose by 0.50% with 18 out of 19 sectors closing positive. Telecoms (+1.17%) and Media...

PATRIS MACRO - Eurozone - Key Takeaways from September

3 Oct 2018

Eurozone: September Final Services/Composite PMIs Bottom-line: The Markit composite PMI final print for September was little changed compared to the flash reading (-0.1 points to 54.1), still consistent with a 0.4%q/q rate of expansion for GDP in the region. The revision leaves...

Patris Daily - 3 October 2018

3 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: Major European stock indices closed negative, with Spain (-1.08%) being hit the hardest. STOXX 600 declined by 0.52% with 16 out of 19 sectors closing on the red. Basic Resources (+0.76%) and Utilities (+0.71%) outperformed, while...

Markit manufacturing PMIs decline in September in both Spain and Italy

2 Oct 2018

Eurozone: September IHS Markit manufacturing PMIs Bottom-line: The final reading for September manufacturing index was little changed compared to the flash print (-0.1 points to 53.2), which puts the monthly fall in 1.4 points and the index at the lowest...

Patris Daily - 2 October 2018

2 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: Major European stock indices traded with a mixed tone. Germany (+0.75%) outperformed while Portugal (-0.86%) was hit the hardest. STOXX 600 rose 0.20%, with 11 out of 19 sectors closing positive. Technology (+1.37%) and Chemicals (+1.13%)...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 1 October 2018

1 Oct 2018

Key Themes for the coming week: 1.Chinese national holiday (“Golden Week”) takes place on 1-7 October. 2.Catalan separatists have clashed with the police over the weekend before the 1 October anniversary of the illegal referendum on secession of the region. 3.The first round...

Patris Daily - 1 October 2018

1 Oct 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: The session was negative for the major European stock indices. Italy (-3.83%) underperformed, following the release of the budget plans by the Italian government. STOXX 600 (-0.83%) closed negative, with only two sectors registering gains: Food &...

Mensal PATRIS - setembro 2018

28 Sep 2018

Pontos em Destaque: Os indicadores coincidentes do Banco de Portugal para a atividade económica e o consumo privado voltaram a cair em agosto, tendência observada desde o máximo de agosto de 2017; A economia portuguesa apresentou nos últimos 3 trimestres um ritmo...

PATRIS Fixed Income Weekly - 28 September 2018

28 Sep 2018

WEEKLY COMMENTARY 1.The Federal Reserve increased its interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, raising the fed funds target range to 2.00%-2.25%. In his post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell showed optimism about US growth and downplayed the trade tension with China....

Patris Daily - 28 September 2018 part 2

28 Sep 2018

OUR TAKE ON THE LATEST MACRO DATA: Eurozone: September European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator The European Commission’s measure of economic sentiment in the euro area continued to decline in September (-0.7 points to 110.9, vs. consensus 111.2). September was the ninth consecutive...

Patris Daily - 28 September 2018 part 1

28 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: With the exception of Italy (+0.62%), the major European stock indices closed positive. STOXX600 closed 0.35% higher. 14 out of 19 setors registered gains. Telecommunications (+0.91%) and Personal & Housing Goods (+0.83%) outperformed. Basic Resources (-0.30%)...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 27 September 2018

27 Sep 2018

S&P500:  S&P500 reached a new intraday all-time high on 21 September (2941). The index closed below the gap of 20 September yesterday. It is recovering, as we type… Short-term technical backdrop deteriorated. Some pullback is possible in the upcoming days, as...

Patris Daily - 27 September 2018

27 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: With the exception of Italy and Portugal that slipped slightly, the main European stock indices closed positive yesterday. France (+0.61%) outperformed. STOXX600 closed 0.30% higher. 15 out of 19 sectors registered gains. Travel & Leisure (+0.78%) outperformed....

Key Takeways from September FOMC meeting

27 Sep 2018

Bottom line: The FOMC raised interest rates by 25bps, as widely expected, bringing the fed funds target range to 2.00%-2.25%, and continuing its gradual withdrawal of policy accommodation. As Jerome Powell recognised in his press conference, the economy has been...

Patris Daily - 26 September 2018

26 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: The major European stock indices, excluding Spain that slipped 0.20%, closed higher on Tuesday. Italy (+1.54%) outperformed, lifted by hopes of a compromise over the 2019 budget law. STOXX600 closed up by 0.46% with 11 out of...

Patris Daily - 25 September 2018

25 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: with exception of Portugal (+0.29%), the main European stock indices slipped yesterday. Italy (-0.91%) and Spain (-0.81%) underperformed. STOXX600 closed 0.56% lower. Media (+1.35%) and Oil & Gas (+1.12%, on back of oil gains), were the only...

Patris Daily - 24 September 2018

24 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: with exception of Portugal, the main European stock indices climbed on Friday. UK (+1.67%) outperformed. All the indices registered gains over the week. STOXX600 closed 0.43% higher (+1.70% over the week). Real Estate (-0.68%), Media (-0.13%) and...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 24 September 2018

24 Sep 2018

Key themes for this week: 1.The Italian government is due to release an update to its Stability Programme by 27 September. Investors expect 5 Stelle and Lega to take a pragmatic approach to public finances. This would support further tightening in...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 21 September 2018

21 Sep 2018

S&P500: S&P500 reached a new all-time high. The index continues with the pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows. Technical indicators are at high, but not extreme levels. Some pullback is possible in the near-term, given the strong upward move since the beginning of...

PATRIS Macro - Eurozone - Markit composite PMI remains close to its May low in September

21 Sep 2018

Eurozone: Flash September Markit PMI Bottom line: The Markit composite PMI fell by 0.3 points in the preliminary reading for September to 54.2 (vs. consensus 54.5). The index remains close to its May low (54.1). The preliminary reading for September is...

PATRIS Fixed Income Weekly - 21 September 2018

21 Sep 2018

WEEKLY COMMENTARY  1.The FOMC is widely expected to announce a 25bps hike in its FFR target range to 2.00%-2.25% when the September meeting ends next Wednesday. Monetary policy is now tougher, as the rate-hike cycle is well advanced, downside risks from...

Patris Daily - 21 September 2018

21 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: Excluding Portugal, which slipped by 0.27%, the main European stock indices climbed on the session. France (+1.07%) outperformed for the second consecutive day. STOXX600 closed 0.70% higher, with 17 out of 19 sectors closing positive. Auto &...

Patris Daily - 20 September 2018

20 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: All the major European stock indices closed positive on Wednesday, with France (+0.56%) outperforming, as risk-on mood continued to prevail amongst investors. STOXX 600 closed 0.33% higher, with 10 out of 19 sectors registering gains. Basic...

Patris Daily - 19 September 2018

19 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: With the exception of the UK (-0.03%), the main European stock indices closed the session in positive territory. Portugal (+0.61%) and Italy (+0.55%) registered the biggest gains. STOXX600 closed +0.11% higher, with 10 out of 19 sectors...

Patris Daily - 18 September 2018

18 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: Mixed session for the main European stock indices. Germany (-0.23%), France (-0.07%) and UK (-0.03%) slipped, while Italy (+1.08%) registered the biggest gain on the day, on the back of banking sector. STOXX600 finished 0.12% higher, with...

Patris Daily - 17 September 2018

17 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: The session was positive for the main European stock indices, with the exception of Portugal that lost 0.56%. STOXX600 closed 0.35% higher, with 15 out of 19 sectors closing positive. Auto & Parts (+1.24%) and Basic...

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 17 September 2018

17 Sep 2018

Key themes for the coming week: 1.The third round of inter-Korea summits takes place on 18-20 September in Pyongyang. The leaders of North and South Korea have met previously on 27 April and 26 May near the Demilitarised Zone. This week’s...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 14 September 2018

14 Sep 2018

S&P 500: S&P500 confirmed the support of the 7 August high (2863). The index maintains the pattern of higher-highs and higher-lows. Given the strong momentum that S&P500 continues to show, we see as possible a break above the 29 August high (2917)....

Patris Daily - 14 September 2018

14 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: The session was mixed for the major European stock indices. Spain (+0.24%) outperformed, while Italy (-0.56%) was hit the hardest. STOXX 600 lost 0.15%, with 7 out of 19 sectors closing positive. Auto & Parts (+1.04%)...

PATRIS Fixed Income Weekly - 14 September 2018

14 Sep 2018

WEEKLY COMMENTARY  1.The September ECB meeting brought little new information, as broadly expected. The main highlights of yesterday's policy meeting were the positive assessment of growth (in spite of the slowdown in GDP growth from a 2.7% q/q saar pace recorded...

PATRIS MACRO - Eurozone - Key takeaways from September ECB meeting

13 Sep 2018

Key takeaways from September ECB meeting: Bottom line: As was widely expected, there was no change in ECB guidance, ahead of 4Q18 taper, with the ECB reaffirming, nevertheless, that it is ready to adjust all instruments if needed. The ECB published new...

Patris Daily - 13 September 2018

13 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: The session was positive for the main European stock indices, on the back of positive credit data coming from China. France and Portugal outperformed, with daily gains of +0.91% and +0.71%, respectively. STOXX600 closed 0.47% higher,...

Patris Daily - 12 September 2018 - PART 2

12 Sep 2018

OUR TAKE ON THE LATEST MACRO DATA: Eurozone: September Sentix Investor Confidence The headline Sentix investor sentiment index fell by 2.7 points to 12.0 in September, below the consensus of 14.3. Investor sentiment remains downbeat due to headwinds from Italy, BREXIT and...

Patris Daily - 12 September 2018 - PART 1

12 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: Spain (+0.14%) and France (+0.27%) recorded gains, outperforming major European stock indices. STOXX600 closed little changed (-0.05%), with 8 out of 19 sectors closing positive. Oil & Gas (+1.39%) outperformed, on the back of the gains posted by...

Patris Daily - 11 September 2018

11 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: STOXX600 finished the day 0.47% higher, the strongest daily gain in two weeks, on the back of a rally in Italian bonds, after Finance Minister Giovanni Tria added to reassuring signals that the country’s budget talks...

PATRIS Daily - 10 September 2018 - Part 2

10 Sep 2018

OUR TAKE ON THE LATEST MACRO DATA: Spain: July Industrial Production Spanish industrial output fell 0.3%m/m in July (vs. consensus +0.4%m/m). Output has declined in 3 of the last 4 months. The annual rate of growth stood at 0.5%y/y. The sectoral breakdown...

PATRIS Daily - 10 September 2018 - Part 1

10 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: Excluding France (+0.16%) and Germany (+0.04%), the main European stock indices fell on the last session of the week. Stoxx 600 closed 0.08% higher, with its 11 sectors registering gains. Telecommunications (+1.01%) and Health care (+0.75%) outperformed....

PATRIS The Week Ahead - 10 September 2018

10 Sep 2018

Key themes to watch over the coming week: 1.US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer visits Brussels for meeting with European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom on Monday. This meeting takes place after US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker reached...

Patris Daily - 7 September 2018

7 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: The session was negative for the main European stock indices. Spain (-1.0%) underperformed, and is already down by 8.32% since the beginning of the year. Stoxx 600 lost 0.59%. Utilities (+0.57%), Construction & Materials (+0.13%) and...

PATRIS Fixed Income Weekly - 7 September 2018

7 Sep 2018

WEEKLY COMMENTARY  1.At next week's ECB meeting, the Governing Council may recognise that the weakening trend seen in 1H18 appears to have been halted, in spite of some recent data remaining mixed. New staff forecasts will be released for GDP growth...

PATRIS - Weekly Technical Outlook - 6 September 2018

6 Sep 2018

S&P 500: S&P500 reached a new all-time high on 29 August and retreated afterwards. Some technical indicators didn’t confirm the new high, which is a negative signal. We see risks of a break below the gap of 24 August 2018 (2876-2885). This...

Patris Daily - 6 September 2018

6 Sep 2018

GLOBAL MARKETS OVERVIEW: Europe: The session was negative for the major European stock indices, with France (-1.54%) and Germany (-1.39%) underperforming. STOXX600 finished the day 1.09% lower. Banks (+0.37%) was the only sector that closed positive. Technology (-3.04%) and Oil...